14 May Steve Cohen says stocks could retest their April lows, sees a 45% chance of recession
Steve Cohen said Wednesday he sees the possibility that stocks could retest their lows from April following the market’s dramatic comeback. “I don’t expect, you know, a significant decline. I think this is possible we can go back toward the lows which is 10%, 15% [from here] so it’s not a calamity,” the founder of Point72 said at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York. “What Trump did recently actually raises the floor and eliminates perhaps the dire scenario.” Cohen’s comments came after the U.S. and China suspended reciprocal tariffs pending a 90-day negotiating period, which sparked a sharp rally in stocks. The S & P 500 has jumped 4% this week, fully recovering from the April sell-off and turning green on the year. Stocks started to mount their comeback from their tariffs lows last month as Trump paused the most severe tariffs on most countries. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 The billionaire investor, also owner of the New York Mets of Major League Baseball, said the market feels “toppy” right now. He believes there is still a modest risk the U.S. could tip into a recession even though tariffs on China have been slashed. “We’re not a recession yet…. We think it would probably be like a 45% chance of recession,” Cohen said. “So that’s not insignificant, even if it’s not the definition of recession, it’s definitely slow growth. And so I think it’s almost unavoidable when you add up the tariffs, you add up the 10% rate, sectorial tariffs, and whatever happens with China.”