05 Mar Metals miner gets upgrade from UBS, which says stock offers ‘compelling value’
Barrick Gold shares could be due for more gains over the coming months, according to UBS. Analyst Daniel Major upgraded the miner’s stock to buy from neutral and kept its 12-month price target at $22, reflecting 24% upside from Tuesday’s close. Shares have already surged more than 14% year to date, outpacing the S & P 500’s year-to-date loss of nearly 2%. The stock has also risen more than 3% over the past month. That comes after shares fell 16.5% in 2024, lagging the broader market. “After material underperformance we think Barrick offers compelling value with near-term operational challenges reflected in the depressed EV/EBITDA multiple, and the market is ascribing limited value for this growth,” the analyst wrote in a Wednesday note. GOLD YTD mountain GOLD, year-to-date Major believes 2025 could mark a trough in production and peak unit costs, seeing “modest” downside to unit costs in the medium term. A restart of the company’s temporarily suspended mines in Mali could also serve as a positive catalyst for the stock, he said. “We view expectations as low, and 2025 guidance as likely conservative,” Major wrote. “Guidance over the next 2-3 years has been re-set lower and a restart in Mali should trigger consensus earnings upgrades.” Additionally, while Major does not expect copper growth to drive a re-rating of Barrick’s shares in the near term, he believes ramping up the Lumwana and Reko Diq mines could lead to an increase in copper’s contribution from around 10% in 2024 to more than 30% by 2030. The upgrade comes as gold has been on a historic tear. The precious metal is up 10% in 2025 and 36% over the past 12 months. Wall Street is rather split on the name, with nine out of 17 analysts that cover Barrick having a strong buy or buy rating, according to LSEG. By contrast, the remaining eight have taken a neutral stance with a hold rating. The stock was around 1% higher in premarket trading on Wednesday on the heels of Major’s upgrade.