Why erstwhile West Asian rivals are striking peace deals

The doves are fluttering over West Asia – as Arab states draw closer to their longtime and ironically polarised adversaries – Iran and Israel. Rich Gulf sheikhs are also striking defence deals with another regional rival, Turkiye, much to the chagrin of their longtime ally, the United States.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who was scheduled for a one-day visit to Saudi Arabia, extended his visit by another day to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in Jeddah. In June, he had travelled to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

A Flurry Of Talks

Iran and the Arab states had severed ties in 2016 but recently agreed to resume diplomatic relations under Chinese mediation. The announcement has sparked optimism as regional heavyweights Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran and Turkiye have for years opposed each other in conflict zones across the Middle East, including in Yemen and Syria.

There have also been quiet mediation efforts between Egypt and Iran for months. In May, credible media reports said that Egyptian-Iranian talks had been taking place in Baghdad since March.

Later that month, Omani Sultan Haitham bin Tariq visited both Cairo and Tehran in what was interpreted as an attempt to broker a reconciliation. Another agreement between Saudi Arabia and Syria, brokered by Russia, is also nearing completion.

All of these developments would have been unimaginable just a few years ago.

Israel: Unthinkable Is Happening

In late 2020 and early 2021, Israel established official diplomatic relations with the UAE (the Abraham Accords), renewed its relations with Morocco, and took steps to establish relations with Sudan.

There are credible reports of meetings between Saudi and Israeli officials since last year. The New York Times recently reported that White House officials have been briefing a small but influential group of Democratic senators on ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

According to Karolina Zielińska, a senior fellow at the Polish Center for Eastern Studies, the UAE and other Arab countries established contacts with Israel after Saudi Arabia’s tacit approval.

In July 2022, the Saudi government lifted all bans on Israeli airlines flying over its territory, which – a similar decision by Oman followed in February 2023 – led to a significant reduction in flight times and costs from Israel to countries in the Far East. In 2022, for the first time, an Israeli athlete took part in a competition in Saudi Arabia.

Turkiye Not Left Out Either

Last year, Saudi Arabia and the UAE also eased relations with their other powerful rival, Turkiye. Those relations had been strained for nearly a decade when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sided with supporters of the Arab Spring.

Both countries recently played key roles in Erdogan’s re-election by providing billions of dollars to Turkiye’s central bank to alleviate the financial crisis.

Turkiye also normalised its relations with the Jewish state by appointing an ambassador to Israel after a four-year hiatus. Sakir Ozkan Torunlar, a veteran diplomat who had previously served in India, was appointed ambassador to Tel Aviv. Ankara had recalled its ambassador to Israel in May 2018 and had dismissed the Israeli envoy after deadly clashes in Gaza.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s planned trip to Turkiye will now take place soon. His trip, scheduled for July, was postponed as he underwent surgery and was busy dealing with protests against judicial reforms in his country.

A New Reality

Experts believe it is no coincidence that so many doves of peace are fluttering over West Asia. While the common and immediate interest may be to contain the threat posed by the Islamic State group (IS), the push comes because of the message that the US is no longer able to protect their interests.

Arab countries have been angered by the US failure to protect their ships in the Gulf of Oman from repeated missile attacks that may have come from Iran since 2019, as well as its failure to help them win the war in Yemen against Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

Turkiye, a NATO ally, is also deeply upset that instead of relying on its forces to fight IS, the US set up, trained and armed anti-Turkish Kurdish groups. Also, successive US presidents did not support the Turkish-backed democratic Syrian opposition against the Iranian- and Russian-backed regime of Bashar al-Assad.

These security failings of the US in West Asia have forced countries to seek better bilateral relationships. Strategic experts also note how after a long preoccupation with West Asia, the US has shifted its focus to containing China in the Indo-Pacific region and countering Russia in the Eurasian region.

US Slips, China Gains

Last year, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan gave such an indication when he downsized his Middle East team and beefed up the unit that coordinates US policy toward the Indian Ocean and Pacific. Ironically, the US abandoned the Middle East to contain China, but in doing so it has given Beijing wide diplomatic latitude in the strategic Middle East.

China, which had so far limited itself to economic relations by signing agreements with Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, the UAE, Bahrain, and Oman has now shown its diplomatic prowess by mediating in the conflicts as well.

Given its treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang, China may not be a natural ally for West Asian countries, but the US also fares poorly in the region after its abysmal record in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Former US official Steven Simon, in his book “Grand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East,” estimated that the US has spent $5-7 trillion on wars that resulted in the deaths of lakhs of Arabs and Muslims. In addition, these conflicts also resulted in approximately 30,000 suicides by US veterans.

No wonder why in a recent survey more than two-thirds of young Arabs in West Asia described Turkiye and China as “strong allies” for the region. According to the 15th edition of the Arab Youth Survey, recently released by Dubai-based global communications agency Asda’a Bcw, the US ranked seventh behind Germany and India as a strong partner for the region.

Iftikhar Gilani is a journalist currently based in Ankara, Turkiye. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.