24 Jan Wells Fargo says buy Chipotle, calls restaurant stock a post-pandemic winner
Chipotle is a post-pandemic winner with long-term growth that investors may not fully value, according to Wells Fargo. Analyst Zachary Fadem initiated coverage of the fast casual restaurant stock as overweight. His price target of $1,800 implies an upside of 12.7% from where the stock closed Monday. Fadem said the Mexican food chain has “best-in-class unit economics with an upside.” He also said it has a group of long-term growth levers ranging from the “Chipotlane” drive-thru to its loyalty program. “CMG offers many LT ways to win, and with sentiment seemingly weak, we see an attractive entry point,” the analyst said in a note to clients Monday. Fadem also pointed to the fact that Chipotle should be able to accelerate shareholder returns through buybacks in the coming years. He added that the company should see strong comparable sales and improving EBIT margins driving growth going forward. Chipotle remains a unit growth story, he said, because its room to expand both within domestic and international markets and its untapped levels for improving its operational structure and balance sheet going forward. Meanwhile, he said costs should moderate going forward, with operations continuing to normalize. Fadem also noted Chipotle benefits from pricing power in the restaurant industry and that it’s considered a clear “post-pandemic winner,” outpacing the broader space. Chipotle is unique among restaurants with sentiment relatively more mixed and higher short interest, he said. And he said pricing elasticity concerns are priced in at a discount of around 30% compared with historical means. Fadem also said the price-to-earnings ratio is about 30% off historical levels due to what he called “overblown” fears around long-term growth and traffic fears. Of restaurant stocks, he said Chipotle is one that trades closer to a “trough” level. The stock slightly underperformed the broader market in 2022, dropping 20.6% in the year. That decline also snapped a four-year winning streak for the fast-casual chain. Fadem is also bullish on Yum Brands and Starbucks , initiating both as overweight. On the other hand, he gave McDonald’s , Darden Restaurants , Domino’s and Restaurant Brands International all equal weight ratings. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.